Breaking down Georgia football vs Ohio State

This week Georgia football travels to Atlanta to take on the Buckeyes in the Peach Bowl, let’s break down the matchup.

Georgia football and Ohio State have only met one time previously in the program’s existence. That was in the 1993 Citrus Bowl. Georgia came out of that game victorious and Garrison Hearst was awarded the game’s MVP. Now, nearly 30 years later, they will meet again in Atlanta for a chance to go on and play for a National Championship.

This is just the second matchup Georgia football has had with Ohio State, but it is the third time Georgia will play in Atlanta this season. In their previous two games in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, they averaged a margin of victory of 33 points. Kirby Smart is 3-1 in his last four games inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Offensive Efficiency

Offensive CatagoriesGeorgiaOhio State
Yards Per Game491.9492.7
Yards Per Play6.977.30
Points Per Game39.244.5
Third Down Conversion Rate51.57%46.10%
Offense Fremeau Efficiency Index Rating (OFEI)1.721.78
Offensive Drive Efficiency (ODE)1.391.44
Offensive Points Per Drive (OPD)3.643.70
Offensive Drive Yards Per Play (OPP)7.147.68
Offensive Turnover Rate (OTO)0.1250.048
Stats were taken from cfbstats.com and bcftoys.com

As you can see, there is very little separation between the two. Ohio State averages less than a yard more per game than Georgia football. They have just a 1.05 yards-per-play advantage and average just 5 more points per game than Georgia. However, one big difference between the two is their third down conversion rate. Ohio State is well below the 50% mark while Georgia converts at over 50%.

Georgia football is averaging about half a yard less per drive and just 0.06 fewer points per drive than Ohio State. This is why Georgia’s drive efficiency rating is so close to Ohio State’s as well. The only thing that really separates them as it pertains to efficiency is the turnover rate. Georgia is turning the ball over on offense at over twice the rate Ohio State does.

If Georgia football limits its turnovers there is no reason why its offense can’t outplay Ohio State’s Saturday night.

Defensive Efficiency

Defensive CatagoriesGeorgiaOhio State
Yards Per Game292.0303.9
Yards Per Play4.774.88
Points Per Game12.819.3
Third Down Conversion Rate26.70%30.51%
Defensive Fremeau Efficiency Index Rating (DFEI)1.460.90
Defensive Drive Efficiency (DDE)1.070.85
Defensive Points Per Drive (DPD)1.111.40
Defensive Drive Yards Per Play (DPP)4.754.98
Defensive Turnover Rate (DTO)0.1030.116
Stats were taken from cfbstats.com and bcftoys.com

When comparing these two defenses one definitely stands out against the other. Georgia football is allowing just 12 fewer yards a game but 7.5 fewer points per game. This is interesting seeing as the points spread in this game is Georgia -6.5. Looking even further into the matchup, you can see Georgia also holds its opponents to fewer third-down conversions.

Looking at the efficiency ratings of each defense, again, Georgia football comes out on top. The Junkyard Dawgs average about one point per defensive drive given up. Their DFEI rating is also over half a point better than their opponent’s. Again, the only area Ohio State has an advantage is its turnover rate. The Buckeye’s defense is getting turnovers just a bit more often.

Combined Efficiency

Combined EfficiencyGeorgiaOhio State
Fremeau Efficiency Index Rating (FEI)1.511.23
Net Drive Efficiency (NDE)2.462.29
Net Points Per Drive (NPD)2.532.30
Net Yards Per Play (NPP)2.392.70
Stats were taken from bcftoys.com

This is where Georgia football, as a team, starts to shine. It is plain to see when you combine the offensive and defensive efficiency of both teams which one rises to the top. The only area Ohio State leads Georgia in combined efficiency is yards per play. Let me tell you a little secret about that, yards don’t win games, points do.

Conclusion

Projected WinnerProjected LoserPWPMPFPAPT
GeorgiaOhio State.6766.736.629.966.5
Stats were taken from bcftoys.com

Using his efficiency ratings, Brian Fremeau, predicts that Georgia will beat Ohio State by a score of 37-30. However, Georgia has only allowed one team to score 30 all season and that was by design. So, I’m going to go a different route.

Georgia 42 – Ohio State 17

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